The pandemic will undoubtedly have long-lasting economic and social effects and change the direction of the international business landscape. It is also clear that we are heading toward a unique refraction point: some global trends developing before the crisis will accelerate, 其他人会减弱.
尽管世界仍远未摆脱新冠肺炎的影响, 毫无疑问，“复苏”并不意味着恢复到以前的正常状态. 现在是面对大流行前和大流行后世界现实的时候了.
我们所熟悉的世界——以及为什么它永远不会和以前一样
By the start of the 21st century the world had grown increasingly globalised and interconnected in terms of trade, 人员流动, 货物, 交流思想.
从2009年到2019年，全球GDP增长了60%以上. 但随着全球化创造了更多财富, 它还造成了相互依赖, 固有的系统性风险和对危机的脆弱性.
世界已经处理了以前的危机，包括SARS和埃博拉疫情, 全球金融危机和战争. 尽管如此，当前的大流行病在规模、影响和应对方面都是独一无二的. Almost every country and industry have been impacted and the simultaneous disruption of both supply and demand is unprecedented.
Never before has close to one third of the human population experienced lockdowns and curfews nor have governments been forced to provide such large stimulus packages or tackle such rapidly rising levels of unemployment.
折射点
危机前正在进行的趋势和转变将不可避免地发生变化. 它们会加速、减速或转向全新的方向. 当限制解除时，需求可能恢复到大流行前的水平, 或者至少接近, 消费者行为可能会经历某种形式的永久性改变.
Digital solutions such as online shopping and web-based education are two trends that have accelerated by several years, 在短短几个月里. 其他趋势(如可持续性)的长期轨迹则不太清楚. Will green stimulus packages issued in the wake of Covid-19 create a milestone in the battle against climate change? Or will cash-strapped companies with enough worries about their bottom-line abandon 可持续性 goals?
管理这种不确定性将是乐博彩票官方app企业面临的一项重大挑战. Continued disruption is likely to bring new challenges that are difficult to predict and more complex than the world has faced before. A good way to navigate this uncertainty and mitigate risks is to adopt scenario planning tailored to every business need.
The scenario approach should also consider a few geopolitical questions including the shape of recovery, 全球化的方向以及主要地区将如何从危机中复苏. 虽然本文探讨了潜在情况的两极分化规模的极端结果, 结果很可能介于两者之间.
复苏的形态是什么?
场景: 一场旷日持久的经济危机
If widespread vaccination is delayed and new virus outbreaks continue in a series of smaller waves over the next year or two, 一场漫长而痛苦的经济危机很可能到来.
持续的不确定性和限制将导致投资和国内需求的损失, business decline and unemployment – which in turn weakens consumer sentiment and creates a downward spiral. 即使疫情已经得到控制, 无效的决策和行动可能会阻碍经济增长，造成高负债国家, 没有能力为未来进行关键的公共投资.
鉴于过去的危机, 世界经济可能需要五年多的时间才能恢复到疫情前的水平. 即使乐博彩票官方app没有爆发新的疫情，并设法避免了封锁, 国外对乐博彩票官方app出口商品和服务的需求可能会进一步下降.
主要注意事项: 一场旷日持久的危机将如何影响你的主要客户和供应商? 你能否概述一下尽管经济低迷，但仍在增长的产品和细分乐博彩票官方app? 你们是否已经计划了第二阶段的成本削减措施?
场景: 快速而乐观的复苏
如果疫情在2020年下半年得到控制, 如果政策应对是有效的，那么成功地推广了广泛的疫苗接种, 全球经济有可能在2020年底之前开始复苏.
由于需求的急剧下降主要与行动限制有关, 当这些问题被永久解除时，经济的很大一部分可以迅速复苏. 家庭将重拾信心并增加支出, 企业也会更愿意投资. This optimistic scenario depends on effective policy responses to mitigate bankruptcies and avoid mass unemployment.
目前，乐博彩票官方app许多主要出口乐博彩票官方app的限制正在放宽. 如果新感染病例保持在低水平，乐博彩票官方app的出口可能在秋季出现一些复苏.
主要注意事项: 一个快速而乐观的复苏将如何影响你的业务? 哪些新机会可能出现，哪些优先产品和细分乐博彩票官方app? 您的公司是否准备好快速扩大规模并在最需要的地方分配资源?
全球化的命运是什么?
场景: 保护主义的影响起了带头作用
如果超国家组织不能团结起来，边境仍然关闭, countries are likely to isolate themselves to ensure domestic growth and introduce more strict control over foreign investments. 这可能导致脱钩, regionalisation and localisation as well as increased turbulence and trade wars slowing down the recovery.
Inward-looking policies could be temporary at first but may remain in place for years depending on recovery progress. 在这种情况下，我们可能会看到乐博彩票官方app公司将制造业搬到离快递乐博彩票官方app更近的地方.
主要注意事项: 在哪些乐博彩票官方app，你的企业最容易受到保护主义政策的影响? 您可以采取哪些风险缓解措施? 您是否有适当的流程来监控和适应不断变化的法规?
场景: 大流行是加强合作的催化剂
如果超国家机构成功地联合起来解决全球挑战, 2019冠状病毒病可能成为加强全球合作的催化剂. Countries would most likely enact interim trade agreements including removal of tariffs to accelerate trade and get economies back on track.
Cross-regional and industrial collaboration will spur sustainable growth and innovation and digital technology will boost exchange of ideas. 科学研究将更加有效, 各国将同意平均分配疫苗. 在这种情况下，世界经济有望更快复苏.
Countries that rely on global trade flows would benefit from more robust trade agreements and cross-regional integration. 乐博彩票官方app将能够增加出口，扩大其在全球经济中的作用.
主要注意事项: 增加的全球协作将如何影响您的业务? 你能利用任何新兴的贸易协定吗, 取消贸易关税和国际合作?
主要地区将如何摆脱危机?
The impact of the crisis will differ greatly across the world’s biggest economies and the final outcome is far from certain.
美国仍在抗击新的疫情, 如果它们持续一段时间, 在该国应对国内复苏的过程中，是否会导致进一步的孤立. 这可能导致美国减少与其他世界大国的接触. 在相反的情况下, the US will continue to play a large role in global affairs and trade and remain an important point of gravity.
至于欧盟, 由于新冠肺炎的挑战，成员国之间的进一步分裂和不满是真正的风险. 另一方面, effective stimulus packages and a united crisis response could spur a willingness to collaborate in order to speed up the recovery.
说到中国, the country could get a head start out of the crisis and gain an advantage in industries that will shape the future. 然而, the lack of external demand and dependency on foreign markets could delay the recovery and lead to an economic crisis.
主要注意事项: 新的重心将如何影响你的行业和业务? 在你的乐博彩票官方app中，你需要了解和规划哪些地缘政治问题和情景?
这些情景和问题为适应后covid -19世界提供了一个起点. 最后但同样重要的, companies need to consider how their business would be impacted if several scenarios occur at the same time, 因为这可能会增加影响.
接下来是我们的系列节目:趋势, transformations and shifts that are likely to shape the post-pandemic world – and how companies can improve their chances of winning in the new business landscape.
