中国’s gloomy demographic outlook will loom large over 北京 policymakers in the years and decades to come. 国家统计局在2022年初发布的数据揭示了这一挑战的深度, 人口增长急剧放缓，劳动力迅速老龄化.
到2021年，中国人口将达到约1.4120亿人，比前一年增加了48万人. 这意味着人口自然增长率仅为0.034%，是中华人民共和国成立以来的最低水平.
这种急剧放缓并非凭空而来. 相反，这是生育率下降和社会快速老龄化的结果。
- 婴儿出生数量减少. 2016年，由于独生子女政策的放松，这一数字略有上升, 自那以后的五年里，中国的出生率稳步下降. 到2021年，只有10个.6200万婴儿出生，比去年同期增长了11%.与2020年的1200万相比下降了5%. 这使得中国的总生育率为1.每个妇女生育15个孩子(创历史新低)，远低于平均水平2个.1更换水平.
- 老年人的数量正在上升. 2021年，65岁以上人口比例为14%.2%，高于去年的9%.2011年为1%.
生育率(出生子女/妇女)
资料来源:中国国家统计局
除了, demographers warn that 中国’s massive urbanisation push will put additional downward pressure on the already dwindling birth numbers, 因为城市居民往往比农村居民生育更少的孩子. 根据联合国的预测, 到2050年，中国的城镇化率将达到80%，远高于目前的64%.2021年为7%. 预计大多数新城市居民将搬到二三线城市.
综上所述，这些趋势将对中国的劳动力结构产生重大影响. Growth in 中国’s workforce peaked around 2014; but as these trends are set to continue the currently one billion strong working-age population is projected to plummet by more than 130 million by 2040. 到本世纪中叶，预计劳动年龄人口的比例将降至50%.
这种转变将对中国未来的经济前景产生严重影响, as the country’s huge population and its many young workers have been a large part of its strong economic growth over the past decades. 更糟糕的是, these trends will also put significant downward pressures on 中国’s already strained retirement system – further depressing growth prospects.
政府希望中国家庭生育更多的孩子
阻止人口快速下降, 补充劳动力, 北京 has passed several policies to make it more attractive for Chinese families to have more children. These include dropping the one-child policy – often attributed for the depressing demographic outlook – allowing couples to have a second child in 2016, 第三次是在2021年. 如上所述，这些措施迄今效果有限.
北京 has also rolled out several policies aimed at reducing the financial burden of raising children. These include a central ban on for-profit after-school tuition in 2021 (which completely tanked the country’s booming edtech sector) as well as regional government incentives, 包括提供儿童保育补贴和延长育儿假.
将国家退休制度的压力降至最低, 政府还启动了提高退休年龄的程序. 在目前的水平上, 男性60岁, 蓝领女性55岁, 白领女性50岁, 它是世界上最低的国家之一. 不出所料，这遭到了公众的强烈反对. 在2021年3月发布的“十四五”规划中, 政府表示，退休年龄将在未来几年“逐步”提高.
65岁以上人口的百分比
资料来源:中国发展研究基金会
独生子女的家庭结构似乎会继续存在下去
尽管政府尽了最大努力, the easing of family planning policies has so far been insufficient in reversing the slowdown in baby making. 这是因为, 意料之中的是, 政府的激励措施并不是影响人们生育兴趣的唯一因素. 更多女性进入职场, 改变对婚姻的态度, 生活成本的上升, 忙碌的996工作文化* , and changing expectations towards quality of life have all affected (young) people’s willingness to have children. 在过去的三年里, these trends have been exaggerated further by economic uncertainties brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
It is worth noting that these trends are not unique to 中国 but can be seen in most developed or newly industrialised countries – including 乐博彩票官方app. But whereas 欧洲an countries grappling with dropping fertility rates have managed to stabilise the population by immigration, 中国不太可能用这种方法来解决人口问题.
中国的民主转型给乐博彩票官方app企业带来了挑战和机遇
It is worth noting that these trends are not unique to 中国 but can be seen in most developed or newly industrialised countries – including 乐博彩票官方app. But whereas 欧洲an countries grappling with dropping fertility rates have managed to stabilise the population by immigration, 中国不太可能用这种方法来解决人口问题.
劳动力萎缩
劳动力萎缩将是中国工业和制造业面临的一大挑战. The increasingly limited labour supply will put upward pressure on salaries and increase the cost for Swedish companies with production on the ground in 中国. This shortage will be especially pronounced in factories as workers pursue higher paying jobs in the services industry (e.g. 在交付领域).
根据我们的商业环境调查, talent attraction has been flagged as the number one challenge for Swedish companies in 中国 for the past two years. 企业应该为这种挑战的继续做好准备, 变得更加明显, 在短期到中期.
另一方面, 这种转变将加快中国工厂的自动化进程, 推动了机器人和工业互联网产业的蓬勃发展. 工业自动化程度的提高将需要更多受过教育的工人. Investment in education on a national scale will therefore play a vital role in driving productivity – offering opportunities for companies in the education sector, 特别是对于那些在成人教育和培训. 这也将为提供减少对工人需求的解决方案的公司带来机会, 包括那些有助于提高生产力的方法, 自动化, etc.
新的消费群体
随着中国人口结构的变化, 老年人在人口中所占比例越来越大, 越来越多的年轻人不再喜欢传统的家庭生活, 越来越多的人居住在二三线城市，这将产生新的消费群体.
随着白银经济的扩张, 医疗保健和养老服务乐博彩票官方app将会有巨大的商机, 在为老年人定制的消费产品中也是如此，比如带有大按键的智能手机, 居家护理服务, 移动医疗解决方案, etc.
由于人口结构的变化, 单身者和丁克(双收入), 没有孩子)是中国不断增长的消费群体. 单身人士有细分的偏好和定制的消费产品, 比如小/单尺寸产品, 到目前为止在中国非常受欢迎. This offers ample opportunities for Swedish consumer brands to create new products specifically targeting this demographic. 与此同时, 丁克族倾向于手头有更多的现金用于购买奢侈品和休闲旅游, 与“有孩子负担”的同龄人相比, 因此，这些行业的乐博彩票官方app公司也应该受益.
Swedish companies should also be aware of the opportunities presented by 中国’s increasing urbanisation, 尤其是大量人口涌入低线城市. 虽然经常被误解为农村, 保守的消费者寻找低价商品, these consumers are increasingly wealthy and are more and more willing to spend money on premium brands and novel travel experiences. Understanding how to reach this clientele will be key to continued success in the Chinese market for Swedish consumer companies.
结论
总之, Swedish companies should be well positioned to leverage new and existing products and solutions to take advantage of the massive demographic shift underway in 中国 today. 与此同时, 企业要做好人才争夺战的准备, 一个令人头疼的问题, 未来几年，随着对高技能人才的竞争加剧，哪一项可能会增加.
Swedish companies should also keep in mind that while these challenges might be a small headache for companies, 它们是中国宏观规划者的一大头痛. Solutions brought by foreign companies to help policymakers meet these challenges will be met by open arms by the Chinese government and should facilitate for market entry / market access / bigger sales down the line.
*996工作文化是指从早上9点工作到晚上9点, 这是中国科技公司和初创公司的普遍做法. 尽管强制性的996时间表在2021年8月被中国法院禁止, 许多公司仍在非正式地执行这种做法.
